Blog Post Date: Nov 3rd, 2020
Blog Post Updated: Nov 3rd, 2020
Judge Sullivan, a hero!
BREAKING: U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan orders USPS to sweep facilities for remaining mail ballots and immediately send them for delivery pic.twitter.com/pBvJRmzcqi
— John Kruzel (@johnkruzel) November 3, 2020
For the umpteenth time the past couple years, good for Judge Sullivan. Never messes around. https://t.co/1hkPodVOnc
— Matthew Miller (@matthewamiller) November 3, 2020
Federal judge Emmet Sullivan just ordered a sweep of all USPS to ensure no ballots are left behind.
— Adrienne Lawrence (@AdrienneLaw) November 3, 2020
The man is singlehandedly restoring faith in the judiciary.
Should a SCOTUS spot open up, I’d like to see Sullivan on the short list.https://t.co/T69lo8ArSl
Thank you - AGAIN - Judge Emmet Sullivan. If one solitary ballot goes undelivered, DeJoy should be Ordered to Show Cause as to why he should not be held in contempt: Federal judge orders USPS to rush delivery of mail ballots as deadlines near https://t.co/6cPWyEsz6b
— Glenn Kirschner (@glennkirschner2) November 3, 2020
Ignore exit polls from today
Nothing I've seen or heard about the exit polls give me confidence that they've figured out how to balance the different types of votes that are coming in. Lots of weird, somewhat incongruous results based on what's been reported. I would ignore.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020
Among other things I would be VERY CAREFUL WITH EARLY EXIT POLLS. Even more so than usual. If there are big splits in the partisan composition of the electorate over the course of the day, and we're seeing that in FL, AZ and NV, exits conducted early on could be quite misleading.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020
I'd just ignore them. It's fine to look at the exits after the fact once they've been able to rebalance the electorate to match the results. But with all these different tranches of votes, they're not likely to be good predictive tools, which is not their stated purpose anyway. https://t.co/BJOQTaJE80
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020
Genuine question: what does exit polling even mean if a majority of those who will vote have voted early? https://t.co/Z3V7naJPw0
— Jeet Heer (@HeerJeet) November 3, 2020
A Republican governor with Balls!
Some news: Vermont @GovPhilScott tells reporters he voted for @JoeBiden just now, making him the first incumbent Republican gov to publicly support the Democratic nominee.
— Paul Heintz (@paulheintz) November 3, 2020
National outlook
This alignment is significant. We look for job approval and ballot choice to converge, and it appears to be doing so. Also noteworthy is that a Biden win of +7% or so would match Obama's 2008 victory--which in a polarized, partisan, tribal era may be a popular-vote ceiling. https://t.co/FkVWTdTH6L
— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) November 3, 2020
Swing states
Thing to watch today: 100 million voted early, and per YouGov/Economist they went 61-36 for Biden.
— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 3, 2020
Trump needed huge turnout today - especially in PA where he was down over 1 million votes. Watching tv and there are not long lines in swing states. Forebodingly bad for GOP.
Pennsylvania
Trump campaign officials in both Texas and Pennsylvania are telling NBC that they are not getting the turnout they expected today and are starting to really worry about how things are playing out. Its not over until its over but we may be heading for a Biden blowout.
— David Condreay 🆘 (@CondreayDavid) November 3, 2020
NEW: Early concern inside Trumpworld about Election Day turnout activities in PA: A person with direct knowledge of the campaign's operations tells me, “The team in Pennsylvania was not as prepared as it should be in a state that could decide the presidency.”
— Peter Alexander (@PeterAlexander) November 3, 2020
A Great Sign For Biden As Pennsylvania’s Largest Surburban County Could Hit 90% Turnout https://t.co/fdNP9wktTg
— #TuckFrump (@realTuckFrumper) November 3, 2020
What I keep saying folks - early voting was predictive. Democrats went in today up by more than 1 million votes in PA - Trump needed huge turnout. There are not long lines in PA, except early this morning. Trump is going to lose PA. https://t.co/CpvoFFxGtX
— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 3, 2020
Trump has sown distrust in voting for months now. He is going to pay the price for that with low turnout from his base. They are not coming out to dig him out of his early voting hole *he* created by discrediting mail-in voting.
— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 3, 2020
Florida (what to look for)
👏🏼KEEP👏🏼VOTING👏🏼
— Dena Grayson, MD, PhD (@DrDenaGrayson) November 3, 2020
Miami-Dade and Broward counties – key Democratic strongholds in #Florida – report HIGHER-than-expected #ElectionDay turnouts as of 11:15am.
901,376 votes had been cast as of noon in Broward:
Democrats 52%
Republicans 22%
Other 24%#VOTEhttps://t.co/i9CklYedWD
Final pre-election tip: if you see Sumter Co., FL (The Villages) report ~84k votes shortly after 7pm and it's:
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 3, 2020
64% Trump or less: very good for Biden
65%-66%: possibly good for Biden
67%-68%: FL on track to be FL
69%-70%: possibly good for Trump
71%+ Trump: very good for Trump
One thing that does seem clear in the Election Day numbers is that the GOP vote came out early but the vote is becoming less Republican (and more indie) over the course of the day.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020
e.g. in Broward County (the rare FL county where Democrats are winning the Election Day vote)
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020
From 7am to 1030am, the vote was D38/R34/I28 (D +4)
From 1030 to 1230pm, it was D39/R31/I31 (D +8)
From 1230 to 3pm, it was D37/R26/I37 (D +11)
Texas
Trump campaign officials in both Texas and Pennsylvania are telling NBC that they are not getting the turnout they expected today and are starting to really worry about how things are playing out. Its not over until its over but we may be heading for a Biden blowout.
— David Condreay 🆘 (@CondreayDavid) November 3, 2020
Hearing from Texas that Republicans feel they need to win in Texas by 10+ points on Election Day in order to make up the early voting deficit.
— Noel Rock (@NoelRock) November 3, 2020
Little or no queuing at polls. More early votes cast up to yesterday than total votes in 2016.
Georgia
Same theme I tweeted about earlier in PA - GOP not getting the turnout they need on Election Day to make up for deficit of early voting so far. https://t.co/TuitjdLiPi
— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 3, 2020