Blog Post Date: Oct 31st, 2020
Blog Post Updated: Nov 3rd, 2020
National polls (8 to 10 point lead for Biden)
In 2016, final NBC/WSJ poll showed Clinton up 44/40 (16% undecided/3rd party).— amy walter (@amyewalter) November 1, 2020
Final NBC/WSJ poll of 2020: Biden 52/42 (6% undecided).
And yesterday’s NBC/WSJ poll had Biden up 57-37 with women votes. Let’s end him ladies! Final dagger suburban housewives ; ) https://t.co/rNu0MddoAS— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 2, 2020
NBC/WSJ poll by gender:— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 1, 2020
men: Trump 48-47
women: Biden 57-37
white men not so ready to move forward in this country.
notably this also includes Black and Latino men. so the breakdown for white men for Trump would be even higher. they are all that is holding him up.— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 1, 2020
The real story here is all the Dicks for Trump. https://t.co/vUlFXyZPSK— Shannon Watts (@shannonrwatts) November 2, 2020
Swing State polls
#NEW YouGov/CCES Poll:— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 1, 2020
Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in the four states likeliest to decide the presidency, according to the final Times/Siena surveys of the campaign— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 1, 2020
Ariz.: Biden 49, Trump 43
Florida: Biden 47, Trump 44
Penn.: Biden 49, Trump 43
Wisc: Biden 52, Trump 42https://t.co/R8elDQwSPU
BREAKING: Joe Biden has increased his lead in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, compared to a month ago (per the latest Ipsos poll).— Mrs. Krassenstein (@HKrassenstein) November 1, 2020
His lead has increased from 5 to 6 points in Pennsylvania, 7 to 10 points in Michigan, and 6 to 10 points in Wisconsin!
PENNSYLVANIA VOTER POLL: Presidential election— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) November 2, 2020
Likely voters, high turnout:
Likely voters, low turnout:
45% Trumphttps://t.co/XnaeWGwTCi pic.twitter.com/u7fEgYTxfG
One state I am a bit curious about is Texas. Our forecast has been pretty skeptical about Biden's chances there, expecting Trump to close well. But instead Biden got a decent run of polls there this weekend and it now it has him within ~1 point. https://t.co/486ZZ385cV pic.twitter.com/efAeDAaXaX— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 2, 2020
BREAKING: Joe Biden has pulled ahead of Trump in Iowa, now leading by 1 point, 49-48% in the latest Public Policy Poll.— Mrs. Krassenstein (@HKrassenstein) November 2, 2020
The momentum is on Biden's side!
Quinnipiac has Biden up 4 in Ohio....oh.....— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 2, 2020
men: Trump 54-36
women: Biden 57-33
Women are going to save this damn country!!!
That's a 42 point gender gap. I'm a person who follows such things and I don't recall seeing anything quite that large.— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 2, 2020
Quinnipiac also has Biden +5 for FL, and +11 nationally.— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 2, 2020
(Biden has a larger lead in FL than Clinton did... and she only lost by 1.2 points.)— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 2, 2020
Nevada politics savant Jon Ralston makes final prediction for his state:— Rachel Maddow MSNBC (@maddow) November 2, 2020
"Biden, 49 percent; Trump 45, percent; others/none of the above, 6 percent"
Full column very worth reading here, including Jon's take on all the down-ballot races:https://t.co/FxY0aLW4ht
Polls from other states
Don't think Biden's going to win Montana, but maybe enough ticket-spitting to get Bullock over the finish line.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020
According to the 538 model right now on election eve, Biden has a better chance of winning Montana (18%) than Trump does of winning the election (10%).— VeritaLux (@VeritaLux) November 3, 2020
Let’s do this, Montana!
Early voting Numbers (swing states)
Pennsylvania isn't a huge mail-voting state, but Dems having returned 82% of mail ballots vs. 71% for Republicans is something that stands out a bit. Returned mail ballots are +43 Democrat but outstanding ones are just +9 D.https://t.co/sTPHw4KZsl pic.twitter.com/nPpj6Uw9qE— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 2, 2020
PENNSYLVANIA‼️- 2.4 million have voted. Just a small margin more turned in ballots:— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 2, 2020
Dems - 1,596,194
Reps - 555,805
No Party - 245,115
Democrats have turned in 82% of ballots, but 351k are outstanding. DO NOT mail them! Bring to drop box or bring to the poll! VOTE!
In other words huge turnout in Texas from every group except the one group that Trump depends on. Let's do this Texas! https://t.co/zFlbLpSQqH— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 3, 2020
No wonder the GOP is so panicked in Texas. These numbers hold tomorrow, this is gonna be blue!— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 3, 2020
Interesting pic.twitter.com/WZDD5smzAc— Will Jordan (@williamjordann) November 2, 2020
New: FL reporting 8.97 million early votes cast, over 95% of the 9.42 million total votes cast in 2016. Dems had a relatively strong final day of early voting (vs. GOP leads preceding days) - but partially b/c a lot of smaller GOP-leaning counties didn't offer Sunday voting.— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2020
FLORIDA‼️ - 8.85 million have voted.— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 2, 2020
No Party- 1,934,000
Democrats have 573k mail in ballots outstanding. We must get them in. Do not use the mail. Vote in person if you can - will be close!
NORTH CAROLINA‼️- 4.5 million have voted, 96% of the 2016 total.— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 1, 2020
by party affiliation:
Dems - 1,694,852
Reps - 1,438,129
No Party - 1,374,232
per NYT, 30% of Black voters plan to vote on Nov. 3. Keep going NC! Feeling good about stealing NC in 2020, and its 15 electorals.
239,822 African American voters over the age of 65 have already voted in Georgia. That's 124% of the total 2016 turnout for African American seniors.— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) November 2, 2020
Early voting in Arizona just surpassed its entire vote count from 2016. Now the fourth state to do so this election.— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) November 2, 2020
Early voting Numbers - 101.7 million votes at close on 11/02
CNN: more than 102 million Americans voted early.— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 3, 2020
Again per polling, these early votes overwhelming went Biden (61-36).
The U.S. hit 73% of 2016 voting before Election Day. At least 101.7 million voted early nationwide. https://t.co/0fOYNQt7tt— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) November 3, 2020
99,719,397 voted.— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) November 3, 2020
That's with CT and KY added in.
More than 98.7 million Americans have already voted, according to data compiled by the U.S. Elections Project.— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 3, 2020
97.6 MILLION have voted, & already multiple states have EXCEEDED their total 2016 votes pre Election Day.— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 2, 2020
Not all are updating daily, but we know: TX, MT, HI, AZ have exceeded....likely others too that haven't reported like GA or are close NC, NV.
When we show up, we win! VOTE!
96 million Americans have voted. Amazing!— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 2, 2020
Of the 47 million reported in states that break out by party affiliation:
Dems - 21,369,667
Reps - 14,318,815
No Party- 11,117,183
Another good sign: 25 million+ who did not vote in 2016 have voted and this block favors D. Keep going!
KENTUCKY‼️- 1,507,983 have voted early, nearly 80% of 2016 vote.— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 1, 2020
by party affiliation:
Dems - 740,420
Reps - 674,684
No Party - 92,879
Keep going KY. Let's repeat 2019. Get out every last vote. END MCCONNELL!
MAINE‼️- 500k have voted in Maine. This is 2/3 of the total 2016 vote.— Amy Siskind 🏳️🌈 (@Amy_Siskind) November 2, 2020
by party affiliation:
Democrats - 237,242
Republicans - 119,483
No Party - 126,596
Keep going! END COLLINS!
House outlook (Cook political Report & 538.com)
Democrats are very likely to retain control of the U.S. House and more likely than not to expand their majority. https://t.co/QKlcUIOE0s— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020
New @CookPolitical: our FINAL House outlook is a Dem net gain of 10-15 seats, with anything from 5-20 seats well within the range of possibility. View our final ratings: https://t.co/wcfAZ8REga— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2020
Solid/Likely/Lean D: 229
Solid/Likely/Lean R: 179
Toss Up: 27 pic.twitter.com/WcdnWJLG16
New @CookPolitical: our FINAL House ratings feature eight late-breaking changes, all towards Democrats (including three in TX). Read full analysis here ($): https://t.co/OUqiTVVs9j pic.twitter.com/UUWa9cQFfN— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2020
Senate outlook (Cook political Report & 538.com)
Our final Senate forecast has Democrats as 75% favorites, though Republicans have held their ground pretty well in the past few weeks in polls.https://t.co/eev4w6wba9— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020
Presidential race outlook (Cook political Report, 538.com, Larry Sabato and others)
Larry Sabato’s final stat call on the election - looks good to me. pic.twitter.com/aVsXyITSkz— John P. Flannery (@JonFlan) November 3, 2020
Much to Fivey's chagrin—or perhaps delight—Biden keeps oscillating between like 89.9% ("favored") and 90.1% ("clearly favored") in our forecast with every random poll we add. (And boy have there been some random polls today.)https://t.co/ajG88SznSA pic.twitter.com/FdOT1ODMe7— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 2, 2020
So... this is a special morning for our forecast in that there's now no more time until the election. (The model treats Election Day and Election Eve as equivalent to one another.) This has a couple of minor effects.https://t.co/aEBz22RXEs— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 2, 2020
Here's how I roughly think about the map. If Biden wins popular vote by...— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2020
3% or less: Trump probably wins AZ/PA, wins w/ 279+ EVs
4-7%: Biden flips AZ/MI/PA/WI/#NE02, wins 290 EVs
8-9%: adds some combo of FL/GA/NC/TX/#ME02, wins 305-389 EVs
10% or more: adds IA/OH, wins 413 EVs
Tbh wouldn't be shocked by any of the 16 possible win/loss combinations in FL/GA/NC/TX (although it's more likely the states fall mostly in one direction than split down the middle).— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2020
It's a big reason why the line between ~290 and ~400 EVs for Biden is astonishingly thin.
Took the @CookPolitical swingometer for one last spin. Here's what it spits out when you plug in the demographic splits in final live-interview national polls (even assuming a 10% turnout bump among non-college whites and 5% bump for everyone else). https://t.co/RAud6tHKVu pic.twitter.com/ekbfkifvNw— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2020
Crystal Ball out with their final ratings update. pic.twitter.com/hgFG0dADOY— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 2, 2020
Results from our final update to the 2020 presidential election model:— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) November 2, 2020
Biden 364 / Trump 174
Biden 53.2% / Trump 44.3%
Check out the interactive map for state-level results and more at https://t.co/5xQeQUaklG #Election2020 pic.twitter.com/JPhD3xLBRu
New @CookPolitical: one day out, we now believe the race for the TX state house is a toss up, w/ potentially massive implications for 2021 redistricting & beyond. Read @loujacobson's final legislative update: https://t.co/jDa4NoElyL pic.twitter.com/gwOuFAnVFa— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2020