COVID-19 Blog

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Coronavirus in Florida, what to expect?

Covid-19Florida

What can Florida expect in the next few weeks

Blog Post Date: July 18th, 2020

Blog Post Last Update: Aug 31st, 2020

Note: This was edited on Aug 8th to add a running collection of tweets (with links to news stories, research papers etc) that addresses everything related to schools reopening in Florida:

Just some thoughts on what we can expect to see happen in Florida in the next few weeks. But first we must study what happened in New York in March and April.

New York in March and April

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvuSelectCounty

At its peak New York had a few days where they crossed 10,000 cases a day (April 3rd, 4th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 15th, 25th). A few days after that their deaths jumped from 11 (Mar 16th) a day to 1000+ (Apr 6th, 7th, 17th, 18th) a day. Its cases peaked at 11,434 on April 15th and its deaths at 1,081 on April 7th.

Date Range Case Range Deaths Range
3/16 - 4/7 352 - 8060 11 - 1081

NY in March, April (chart)
NY in March, April (chart)
NY in March, April (Table)
NY in March, April (Table)

ICU capacity, Contact tracing, Positive test rates, R0 values at critical levels in Florida

https://covidactnow.org/us/fl?s=716119

This is an excellent site which tracks the R0 (infection rate), positive test rate, ICU capacity and contacts traced.

At 1.16 R0 rate, the disease is spreading rapidly. ICU is at 100% capacity or higher through out Florida. We saw this in NY at the peak and people were dying in their homes, in the Hospital corridors because they couldn't be admitted or get a bed to be treated. This is NY all over again. Also, there is absolutely no contact tracing.

Florida is critical
Florida is critical

This is what you get when you have a governor and a Republican party and a Trump administration that doesn't believe in science. Ron DeSantis was absolutely foolish to take a premature victory lap in April

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1276294290898145282

What can we expect in the next 2-3 weeks?

Now we have had 10,000+ cases in Florida and Texas for exactly 11 days (July 2nd, 4th, 5th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th). It has also blown past 15,000 cases (Remember NY's peak was just 11,434). Also, the days where it didn't cross 10,000 it did come close. So we are already past the case peaks of NY.

There is usually a lag between the cases peak and the deaths peak. Also, more testing is being done, so cases are being caught earlier and hospitals may be handling it a little better, learning from the experience of the doctors in NY. But not due to anything the administration has done. They have done everything to maximize the cases by not mandating masks or social distancing etc. So, with the R0 values still above 1 and the cases continuing to explode, we are about 5-7 days away from an explosion in deaths. 100 deaths a day will look very mild then. My guess is that we will start seeing 400 to 500 deaths a day by next weekend.

We have already seen a 250% increase in the high of 65 deaths on June 23rd to 156 on July 16th. This will continue to break new records for the foreseeable future.

FL in July (Table)
FL in July (Table)

Where to go to look at the Florida chart?

On my COVID data analytics site, at either of these URLs below, you can select just Florida and the months of June / July to see the data relevant to Florida right now. In the first you will see a column chart for cases and one for deaths. In the second you will see the data as a table

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvuSelectCounty https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvuSelectCountyAsTable

My COVID data analytics site also shows that there are 30 counties in Florida where they have had at least 100% growth in weekly cases from two weeks ago. Select Florida from the state dropdown and then sort by the "2 Weeks % diff" column (descending). You will notice that some counties even have 400 to 800% growth.

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvucounty

30 Florida counties with 100% growth
30 Florida counties with 100% growth

So, ICUs at capacity is not surprising at all.

Why does it make sense to compare NY with FL?

Because their population is similar. Florida is the third largest state by population (21.5 Million) and New York is the fourth largest (19.5 million)

Differences between NY and Florida

New York City is very densely populated and so the disease spread very easily and that is where most of the deaths occurred.

Luckily, FL is not so densely populated. However, Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville and Orlando (especially with Disneyland foolishly re-opening on the day they had 15,000+ cases) are areas of worry. The ageing population is another worrying factor.

Above all else, the ICUs being at capacity is the most troubling factor. They had 4 months to prepare for this and they have blown their response. A democratic governor not beholden to Trump would have done far better. Or a Republican governor who was not beholden to Trump, like Larry Hogan of Maryland would have done far better.

So badly unprepared, which is why we are seeing headlines like these:

Coronavirus Update: Refrigerated Trucks To Serve As Mobile Morgues In Miami-Dade

https://miami.cbslocal.com/2020/04/15/miami-dade-refrigerated-trucks-mobile-morgues/

Florida out of ICU beds. Texas, Arizona requests refrigerated trucks.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article244284292.html

Caveat

I am not an epidemiologist or a virologist. I am a software developer and a data analyst. So, I am looking through the numbers and looking at factors like R0, Positive Rate, ICU hsopitalizations and whether social distancing is being observed and whether masks are mandated etc. In addition to that I am looking at what happened in places like NY, NJ, Italy, Spain, China etc. which were the first places to get hit, to come to these conclusions.

My goal is to warn people as to what may come and to practice social distancing and to wear masks at all times. Because wearing a mask never killed anybody and it could most certainly save hundreds of thousands of people.

Look at all those places which shut down and then once it was brought under control, people never left home without masks. Italy, Spain, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Denmark, Norway etc. They all flattened the curve and then are using common sense like wearing a mask.

The places that refuse to wear masks, sees growth like this since April 30th.

Texas: Up 1014%

Arizona: Up 1037%

Florida: Up 1953%

Now is not the time to be against science and be a ridiculous anti-masker and show the whole world how ignorant and dangerous you are! Wear a damn mask!

https://twitter.com/JRehling/status/1284692109056864256

Aug 8th Update

The daily deaths have indeed started going up -- 5 days over 200 now in the last 10 days with a high of 257.

The cases have gone down now that the Trump and DeSantis administration want to reduce testing to reduce number of cases (an insane theory only bought by the most idiotic of Trump supporters). So people in Florida must wait longer now to get tested and wait even more to get the results back rendering all testing useless. Also, testing centers are being closed in Florida by DeSantis. He used the hurricane as an excuse.

Trump has to hurt his base to win the election. That is his only play. He needs his idiotic base to believe the cases are going down because the virus is no longer a threat and not because they are suppressing the amount of testing being done in Florida.

So voter suppression for democratic supporters and testing suppression for all of Florida is how they hope to win the election.

FL in August (Table)
FL in August (Table)

Relevant links to COVID Data Analytics site

Case and Death Patterns by State

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvupattern

Red States v/s Blue States

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvcow/cvwred_blue

States, counties setting cases and deaths records each day

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvuRecordCasesStates

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvuRecordDeathsStates

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvuRecordCasesCounties

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvuRecordDeathsCounties

Cases and deaths records for each state

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvuAllCasesStates

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvuAllDeathsStates

Details of Cases and deaths by state / county

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvucounty

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvuSelectCounty

https://corona-virus.dev/app/reports/cvus/cvuSelectCountyAsTable

School and College Reopenings

A national database that tracks coronavirus-related school closings, quarantines, cases and deaths.

Covid-19 Is Creating a Wave of Heart Disease -daily reminder that there is so much more to #COVID19 than death

New CDC guidance says COVID rates in children is steadily increasing. (not ideal for schools reopening)

LONG TERM BURDEN after COVID hospitalization — “Anybody who needed to be hospitalized or needed ICU support will suffer disability afterwards.”

This is why it is so dangerous to send kids off to school in the Republican states where Case Positivity ratio is 10-20%. Millions of Americans will now have a lifelong pre-existing condition and if the Republicans win the 2020 election through voter suppression, shutting down USPS and colluding with Russia and China and Ukraine, these Millions of Americans are looking at bankruptcy. Vote Blue, as your life depends on it!

COVID-19 Can Wreck Your Heart, Even if You Haven't Had Any Symptoms

Sep 2nd

Teachers resigning over COVID-19 concerns in Pinellas County, Florida

More than 100 people sent home from Palmetto High School in Manatee County, Florida after a teacher tested positive for COVID-19

Aug 31st

With a population of 328 million in the United States, it may require 2.13 million deaths to reach a 65 percent threshold of herd immunity, assuming the virus has a 1% fatality rate.

Let’s not try out this strategy. What if the virus has a 2% fatality rate? 4.26 million deaths is acceptable?

Cases, hospitalizations and deaths from the coronavirus have increased at a faster rate in children and teenagers than among the general public, a new data set shows

It is insane and cruel that the 30 Republican states are opening up schools and colleges with R0 greater than 1, Positivity rates well north of 10% and cases rising in kids. This is straight up murder! They are endangering millions of kids, teachers, staff and parents

What @GovRonDeSantis is now pimping is “herd immunity.”

Herd immunity in Florida is a death sentence for the elderly and high risk. Ron’s ineptitude and complete lack of empathy has resulted in mass #COVID19 illness and death. Now he is doubling down.

Aug 29th

Rampant fraud by Ron DeSantis, Trump, GOP in Florida

Florida accidentally released a report on COVID-19 outbreaks at schools — from daycare centers to colleges — and found nearly 900 students and staffers had tested positive during a two-week period in August as schools had just begun or readied to reopen.

Osceola County, Florida school to close for 2 weeks after 10 staff members test positive for COVID-19

@abcactionnews reporting that Florida was updating pediatric #COVID cases in two week increments leading up to the first day of school

Only reverting back to daily updates after being confronted. Just another case of #Florida misleading the public about their public health risk.

Aug 28th

Trump and the Republicans come up with a plan to kill 2.3 to 3 million Americans

They complained that 4 Benghazi deaths were too many. Now they are signing off on Putin paying Taliban to kill American Soldiers and the genocide of 2-3 million Americans.

Good thing that they are pro-life. Imagine if they were the pro-death party?

FL has significantly reduced testing for #COVID - so our number of positives have decreased.

@HealthyFla’s positive rate is also not accurate. Here is the truth. GA is almost doubling our testing. Even with that, FL has more positive cases & a greater positivity rate of 13.6%.

#COVID testing is down in Florida. What does it mean for the state?

I can point to why #COVID19 testing in Florida is down - 👉🏻 ⁦⁦@realDonaldTrump and ⁦@GovRonDeSantis⁩.

243 students in Escambia, Santa Rosa Rosa County Florida isolated due to COVID-19 in first week of school

Aug 26th

Florida university officials started suspending fraternities and punishing students who flout coronavirus-safety measures

Aug 25th

FL coach, teacher aged 46 dies from #COVID19

Nearly 9,000 Florida children diagnosed with coronavirus in two weeks as schools reopen

Univ of FL reports 1,002 students were tested for COVID-19 at its Student Health Center with 193 or 19.3% testing positive

More fraud in Florida, this time by the Department of Health

One day after the Florida Department of Health published a report saying Duval County, Florida had 24 school-related positive COVID-19 cases and 3 college-related cases in less than 2 weeks, the agency removed the reports from its website.

A Florida judge has blocked the state's requirement that all brick-and-mortar public schools must offer in-class education by August 31

Aug 24th

Rebekah Jones, Fired FL Data Scientist and Ron DeSantis’ Worst Nightmare, Goes After COVID in Schools

A FL judge struck down an order for all of the state’s K-12 public schools to reopen by Aug 31 regardless of Covid-19 safety concerns

Today, following outcry for not releasing school-related COVID-19 case numbers, the FL Department of Health dropped a school report

Aug 23rd

Head of Florida education Dept refusing to wear a mask INDOORS & speaking to students

Aug 22nd

Florida's GOP Governor Ron DeSantis calls COVID a lower risk for school-aged children than flu

Everything he does is to endanger the kids, the teachers, the staff and the families of every one involved.

Aug 21st

A 6-year-old girl is now the youngest person to die of COVID-19 in Florida

Dick Corcoran runs Florida’s education system. Dick Corcoran refuses to wear masks in schools

@jaketapper: “Is there still not a risk here that lives are going to be lost” as schools open?

“No,” Florida Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran says the sociopath, citing transmission rates and digital options. Not having students back in school is "more grave than the risk of Covid.”

COVID-19 entered nearly a dozen Manatee County, Florida schools during students’ first week.

Sociopath and Secretary of Education @richardcorcoran just said on Fox News he would terminate any teachers that failed to show up due to COVID-19

Aug 20th

192 positive COVID-19 cases reported in Orange County Public Schools ahead of face-to-face instruction, union says

Aug 19th

42 Florida State students have tested positive for COVID-19

Here is DeSantis last week at FSU bragging about football being safe. Today, 42 FSU students tested positive. School started 2 days ago

Nearly 300 students in Florida county quarantined due to COVID-19 exposure concerns

Nearly 600 Miami school district employees have coronavirus

Aug 18th

Education chief tells districts: Don’t rush to close schools when covid-19 cases appear (Republicans want to endanger & bankrupt as many as they can)

Orlando: Brevard school sends COVID-19 waiver, releasing responsibility in injury, death (More dastardly Republican moves to endanger thousands)

Bradenton Super Spreader Youth event

Aug 17th

238 Martin County, Florida students now in quarantine. 102 new ones today

A Florida school principal who survived Covid-19 is urging families to choose online learning

Aug 15th

8,250 kids, or 18% of the total, have tested positive since August 1, 2020. (not ideal for reopening, risks the lives of millions in FL)

DeSantis / Florida is making a high-stakes gamble on school openings, with superintendents pressured into reopening against their will

DeSantis says FL schools with COVID-19 cases should stay open (endangers millions)

Horrific conditions for FL schools reopening; 14-day average positivity rate is 14.1% for kids; no school district has a positivity rate under 5%; 8 counties have rates over 20% for kids;

FL is manipulating COVID Positivity ratio

Mother & son working at the Fort Braden School in Tallahassee, FL both died this summer from COVID-19 just weeks apart from each othe

Aug 14th

Second Martin County, FL classroom transitions to remote learning after student experiences COVID-19 symptoms

FL high school athletic administrators vote to restart football, other fall sports in 10 days, over the advice of their doctors.

Another 228 deaths in Florida, case positivity ratio is still very high -- Not the conditions for Schools reopening

South #Florida hospitals seeing more children arriving with dangerous #COVID related symptoms

Aug 13th

Criminal cover up by up FSU (You can expect more of these stories from Georgia, Florida and all Republican governed states)

3 teachers, 1 student at Suwannee County, FL school test positive for COVID-19 within first 4 days of school opening

A Florida high school has a COVID problem, and the students haven’t even arrived yet

Aug 12th:

Florida child endangerment - Gov overruled schools that wanted virtual education— threatens to cut funding —Schools are in hotspot FL counties too

One day after schools reopened, students in one Florida classroom to quarantine

Aug 11th:

Three people affiliated with one Florida school die from coronavirus

FL has record deaths -- 277 today

Kids epidemic: Florida's Covid-19 cases in children have increased 137% in past month

21 year Florida man recovers from organ failure after mild COVID symptoms. Kids and young healthy adults are not immune

FL has record 277 deaths, cases in FL kids have increased 137%, record weekly hospitalizations (not ideal for schools reopening)

Broward County, Florida schools to remain online until at least October

Aug 10th:

FL reports record number of weekly COVID-19 hospitalizations. 3,355 people were admitted from last Sunday August 2, 2020

This is just not idea for school reopenings anwyhere in Florida. There will be many more needless deaths due to the callousness of the Trump / DeSantis administrations.

One Florida county has a 34% coronavirus positivity rate and is still allowing children to return to school

This is just pure evil forcing kids, staff, teachers to go to school under these circumstances.

40+ schools have already closed nationwide after reopening last week

Florida teacher writes her own obituary before returning to school during pandemic

An elementary school teacher from Florida has decided to retire over COVID-19 concerns

5-Year-Old’s COVID Saga Has Florida Mom Saying Hell No to In-Person School

School superintendents ask state for COVID rapid tests, policies to follow

#COVID #Testing in #Florida down 42% from two weeks ago, and consequently #cases go down with it.

Baker County, has seen its COVID-19 numbers more than double in past week, just in time for school reopenings

This is just pure evil forcing kids, staff, teachers to go to school under these circumstances. I just wonder what goes on in the minds of the idiots that voted for this evil. Are they even realizing that their votes did this? Sacrificing themselves and their kids for Trump and DeSantis? Madness!

Aug 9th

At least 97,000 children in US have tested positive for COVID in the last two weeks of July.

How widespread is COVID-19 in children? (9%) A look at the latest data as schools reopen

COVID-19 can spread in air if schools don't have proper AC, report says

Aug 7th

Hillsborough County with 2,857 infected kids may be punished if schools open virtually

Australia follows Israel's disasterous model; School reopening results in explosion of cases; 100s of schools now closing again

Apopka, FL High School coach in medically-induced coma, battling COVID

Dozens of teachers, students get COVID in 1st wk

7 year old dead in GA (Kids are not immune)

Even Germany closes 2 schools

FL Desantis admin forces health authorities to pressure districts to open schools

Aug 6th

Schools that open in the fall will close by October

Some teachers are retiring rather than go back to school

Questions of disclosure after a Hillsborough teacher gets COVID

Broward schools headquarters evacuated for COVID-19

CDC abdicates responsibility; will let kids get sick

German schools test students twice a week

Aug 5th

Trump learns nothing from 160,000 dead and wants to reopen Schools

Covid-19 may spread more easily in schools than thought, report warns.

In Florida, teachers are told if they strike, they will be summarily terminated and their pensions forfeited.

Aug 4th

Trump administration sticks to plan to reopen schools (and infect millions?)

Manatee School has COVID-19 shutdown on day one

When Covid Subsided, Israel Reopened Its Schools. It Didn’t Go Well.

Aug 3rd

Florida taking wrong lessons from failed experiments in Japan & Israel where school reopenings & easing has infected thousands & killed hundreds more

Trump criticizes Birx after she warns U.S. it is unsafe to reopen schools as coronavirus outbreaks are extraordinarily widespread

Two teenagers (14, 17) in Florida have died from Covid-19 complications, according to data posted by the Florida Department of Health

As the Coronavirus Comes to School, a Tough Choice: When to Close

Ex FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb on MLB and Schools Reopening

July 30th

Miami Marlins is failing to contain a COVID outbreak among its players. What does that mean for schools reopening this fall?

July 29th

Brevard County high school, Florida

July 13th

Teachers are writing their wills

Super spreader events that will lead to explosion of cases and shutdowns

Florida Atlantic University

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