Coronavirus in Arizona, what to expect?

What can Arizona expect in the next few weeks

Blog Post Date: July 18th, 2020

Blog Post Last Update: Aug 31st, 2020

Just some thoughts on what we can expect to see happen in Arizona in the next few weeks. But first we must study what happened in New Jersey in March and April.

New Jersey in March and April

At its peak New Jersey had quite a few days where they crossed 3,000 cases a day. A few days after they crossed the 3,000 case threshold, their deaths doubled overnight from 88 (4/1) to 182 (4/2)

New Jersey reached a cases peak (4305) on April 3rd. During the rest of April, the cases hovered in the 3,000 to 4,200 range. But the deaths which is a lagging indicator continued to rise through out April finally peaking at 457 on April 30th.

Date Range Case Range Deaths Range
3/20 - 4/30 149 - 4305 2 - 457

NJ in March, April (chart)
NJ in March, April (chart)
NJ in March, April (Table)
NJ in March, April (Table)

ICU capacity, Contact tracing, Positive test rates at critical levels in Arizona

This is an excellent site which tracks the R0 (infection rate), positive test rate, ICU capacity and contacts traced.

At 0.99 R0 rate, the disease is no longer spreading rapidly. The 24% positive rate is a nationwide high.

ICU is at 100% capacity or higher through out Arizona. So, that is an extremely worrying number. We saw this in NJ at the peak and people were dying in their homes, in the Hospital corridors because they couldn't be admitted or get a bed to be treated. This is NJ all over again.

Also, there is absolutely no contact tracing.

Arizona is critical
Arizona is critical

This is what you get when you have a governor and a Republican party and a Trump administration that doesn't believe in science. They should never have re-opened early or re-opened bars, gyms and restaurants at full or even 50% capacity.

What can we expect in the next 2-3 weeks?

Now we have had 4,000+ cases in Arizona for exactly 6 days. Its high was on June 30th at 4,683 cases. (Remember NJ's peak was just 4,305). Most other days it has been in the 3,000+ range

There is usually a lag between the cases peak and the deaths peak. Also, more testing is being done, so cases are being caught earlier and hospitals may be handling it a little better, learning from the experience of the doctors in NY.

The good news for Arizona is that unlike Florida and Texas, the cases are not growing rapidly and we may have already reached the peak in cases (here's hoping that it is the case). With the R0 values still around 1 and the cases hovering around 3,000 to 4,000 every day we are probably about 5-7 days away from a surge in deaths. We could see it play out just like in New Jersey where the deaths peak was a full month after the cases peak.

We have already seen a 300% increase in the high of 47 deaths on June 30th to 147 on July 18th. This probably will continue to break new records for the foreseeable future, based on what we saw in New Jersey

AZ in July (Table)
AZ in July (Table)

Where to go to look at the Arizona chart?

On my COVID data analytics site, at either of these URLs below, you can select just Arizona and the months of June / July to see the data relevant to Arizona right now. In the first you will see a column chart for cases and one for deaths. In the second you will see the data as a table

My COVID data analytics site also shows that there are only 5 counties in Arizona where there is growth in weekly cases from two weeks ago. Select Arizona from the state dropdown and then sort by the "2 Weeks % diff" column (descending). So, in that sense this is doing better than Florida (where 30+ counties have 100% growth).

30 Arizona counties with 100% growth
30 Arizona counties with 100% growth

Why does it make sense to compare New Jersey with Arizona?

Because their population is similar. New Jersey with 8.8 million population is the eleventh largest state by population while Arizona is the fourteenth largest with 7.3 million.

Differences between New Jersey and Arizona

New Jersey City is very densely populated (5th smallest state) and so the disease spread very easily.

Luckily, AZ is not so densely populated as it is the sixth largest state. However, Tucson and Phoenix (Maricopa county) are areas of worry. In fact the Trump rally in Phoenix already caused a surge in Maricopa county and it is now in a decreasing trend. Just like in Florida, the ageing population is a huge worrying factor for Arizona.

Above all else, the ICUs being at capacity is the most troubling factor. They had 4 months to prepare for this and they have blown their response.

So badly unprepared, which is why we are seeing headlines like these:

How Arizona became such a COVID-19 hot spot

Arizona out of ICU beds. Texas, Arizona requests refrigerated trucks.


I am not an epidemiologist or a virologist. I am a software developer and a data analyst. So, I am looking through the numbers and looking at factors like R0, Positive Rate, ICU hsopitalizations and whether social distancing is being observed and whether masks are mandated etc. In addition to that I am looking at what happened in places like NY, NJ, Italy, Spain, China etc. which were the first places to get hit, to come to these conclusions.

My goal is to warn people as to what may come and to practice social distancing and to wear masks at all times. Because wearing a mask never killed anybody and it could most certainly save hundreds of thousands of people.

Look at all those places which shut down and then once it was brought under control, people never left home without masks. Italy, Spain, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Denmark, Norway etc. They all flattened the curve and then are using common sense like wearing a mask.

The places that refuse to wear masks, sees growth like this since April 30th.

Texas: Up 1014%

Arizona: Up 1037%

Florida: Up 1953%

Now is not the time to be against science and be a ridiculous anti-masker and show the whole world how ignorant and dangerous you are! Wear a damn mask!

Relevant links to COVID Data Analytics site

Case and Death Patterns by State

Red States v/s Blue States

States, counties setting cases and deaths records each day

Cases and deaths records for each state

Details of Cases and deaths by state / county

School and College Reopenings

A national database that tracks coronavirus-related school closings, quarantines, cases and deaths.

Covid-19 Is Creating a Wave of Heart Disease -daily reminder that there is so much more to #COVID19 than death

New CDC guidance says COVID rates in children is steadily increasing. (not ideal for schools reopening)

LONG TERM BURDEN after COVID hospitalization — “Anybody who needed to be hospitalized or needed ICU support will suffer disability afterwards.”

This is why it is so dangerous to send kids off to school in the Republican states where Case Positivity ratio is 10-20%. Millions of Americans will now have a lifelong pre-existing condition and if the Republicans win the 2020 election through voter suppression, shutting down USPS and colluding with Russia and China and Ukraine, these Millions of Americans are looking at bankruptcy. Vote Blue, as your life depends on it!

Aug 31st

With a population of 328 million in the United States, it may require 2.13 million deaths to reach a 65 percent threshold of herd immunity, assuming the virus has a 1% fatality rate.

Let’s not try out this strategy. What if the virus has a 2% fatality rate? 4.26 million deaths is acceptable?

Temple University shuts down in-person classes as #COVID19 cases on campus increase.

Temple said in-person classes go online starting Monday and continue online through Friday, Sept. 11, with only classes deemed essential by college deans held in person

Aug 28th

Trump and the Republicans come up with a plan to kill 2.3 to 3 million Americans

They complained that 4 Benghazi deaths were too many. Now they are signing off on Putin paying Taliban to kill American Soldiers and the genocide of 2-3 million Americans.

Good thing that they are pro-life. Imagine if they were the pro-death party?

Deceptive practices in Arizona

Top health officials in Arizona and Maricopa County won't release COVID-19 outbreaks in schools to the public.

Parents, guardians, faculty will be notified. BTW: ASU, universities are not required to report outbreaks to state, or Maricopa County.

The U. of Arizona says it caught a dorm’s covid-19 outbreak before it started. Its secret weapon: Poop.

Deceptive practices in ASU which will lead to more infections and deaths, not less

It's the same story again and again. Colleges have outbreaks and teachers & students are left in the dark. This story is from #Arizona State University.

  • Professors NOT told students have COVID!
  • Prevented from WARNING OTHERS, because it would cause "unnecessary panic"

452 @ASU students have tested positive for #COVID19. More than half of the students who tested positive live off-campus in the Valley.

About 205 students with COVID-19 are living on the Tempe campus and in isolation.

ASU President tweets incorrect numbers

Aug 26th

More fraud in a Republican Governed state -- This time hiding & falsifying #COVID deaths

Hundreds of #COVID19 deaths unaccounted for in #Arizona’s Maricopa County; 71% increase in deaths last month.

In July 2019 there were 2,656 — a typical number for that month, but in July 2020 there were 4,540 deaths.

ASU confirms 161 COVID-19 cases on and off-campus between students and staff

Aug 25th

Arizona schools, childcare centers required to report COVID-19 outbreaks

ASU has some nerve, keeping its COVID-19 numbers secret

ASU is a public university that has made the controversial decision to open for in-person instruction, potentially endangering a community that is desperately trying to get control of this virus. And we have no right know what’s going on?

Tucson's largest school district fully closes another campus and partially shutters another due to COVID-19

This is just in the second week of Gov. Doug Ducey requiring schools to offer in-person services

Aug 22nd

CDC updates school COVID-19 guidelines

'An Arizona teacher ...warned that in-person classes would turn schools into a "petri dish" after she & 2 other teachers in 1 school contracted COVID-19 during summer school & 1died.'

Aug 20th

Gov. Doug Ducey says he won't intercede or criticize school districts that opt to reopen for in-class instruction

Even though their communities don't meet the COVID-19 benchmarks set by his health director.

Another Republican Governor refusing to do his job and thereby endangering kids, teachers, staff and all their families.

Aug 16th

Arizona teachers are being fined for refusing unsafe working conditions?

What happened to "right to work"(for less)? This is going to be a disaster.

Aug 15th: Now some schools have been open for more than a week in Arizona.

Arizona school district cancels plans to reopen schools after 100+ teachers refuse to return

Bold — Arizona public school district forced to abandon plans after more than 100 teachers and staff members called in sick

Praents / Teachers / Staff need to opt out of in-person training. Choice is simple, listen to the Sociopathic GOP governors and Trump and die or opt to stay home and live! This sickout example needs to be followed in every state / county which does not meet the CDC guidelines of 14 days of cases declining and test positivity rate of less than 5%. Even if those conditions are met, testing should be readily available for every school kid / teacher / staff with results returned the same day.

Anything else is the the Republican party sacrificing people to get Trump and the Republicans re-elected. Your life or your kids lives or your parents lives are not worth a vote for Trump or any Republican candidate.

Aug 10th

40+ schools have already closed nationwide after reopening last week

Aug 9th

At least 97,000 children in US have tested positive for COVID in the last two weeks of July.

How widespread is COVID-19 in children? (9%) A look at the latest data as schools reopen

COVID-19 can spread in air if schools don't have proper AC, report says

Aug 8th

AZ teacher fined $2K for resigning from Dysart school district over COVID-19 concerns

Again, more evil being perpetrated in Red States by Republican administrations

ABC15 received reports Friday of at least four districts in Arizona with positive cases of COVID-19

Brain-dead AZ school district officials pray-the-virus-away for school reopening

Aug 7th

Australia follows Israel's disasterous model; School reopening results in explosion of cases; 100s of schools now closing again

Dozens of teachers, students get COVID in 1st wk

7 year old dead in GA (Kids are not immune)

Even Germany closes 2 schools

Aug 6th

Schools that open in the fall will close by October

Some teachers are retiring rather than go back to school

CDC abdicates responsibility; will let kids get sick

German schools test students twice a week

Aug 5th

Trump learns nothing from 160,000 dead and wants to reopen Schools

Covid-19 may spread more easily in schools than thought, report warns.

Aug 4th

Trump administration sticks to plan to reopen schools (and infect millions?)

When Covid Subsided, Israel Reopened Its Schools. It Didn’t Go Well.

Aug 3rd

Trump criticizes Birx after she warns U.S. it is unsafe to reopen schools as coronavirus outbreaks are extraordinarily widespread

As the Coronavirus Comes to School, a Tough Choice: When to Close

Ex FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb on MLB and Schools Reopening

Aug 2nd

Issues faced by an Arizona superintendent on safely reopening schools

‘I’m sorry, but it’s a fantasy’. Jeff Gregorich, superintendent, on trying to reopen his schools safely

July 13th

Teachers are writing their wills