Blog Post Date: July 18th, 2020
Blog Post Last Update: Aug 31st, 2020
Just some thoughts on what we can expect to see happen in Arizona in the next few weeks. But first we must study what happened in New Jersey in March and April.
New Jersey in March and April
At its peak New Jersey had quite a few days where they crossed 3,000 cases a day. A few days after they crossed the 3,000 case threshold, their deaths doubled overnight from 88 (4/1) to 182 (4/2)
New Jersey reached a cases peak (4305) on April 3rd. During the rest of April, the cases hovered in the 3,000 to 4,200 range. But the deaths which is a lagging indicator continued to rise through out April finally peaking at 457 on April 30th.
|Date Range||Case Range||Deaths Range|
|3/20 - 4/30||149 - 4305||2 - 457|
ICU capacity, Contact tracing, Positive test rates at critical levels in Arizona
This is an excellent site which tracks the R0 (infection rate), positive test rate, ICU capacity and contacts traced.
At 0.99 R0 rate, the disease is no longer spreading rapidly. The 24% positive rate is a nationwide high.
ICU is at 100% capacity or higher through out Arizona. So, that is an extremely worrying number. We saw this in NJ at the peak and people were dying in their homes, in the Hospital corridors because they couldn't be admitted or get a bed to be treated. This is NJ all over again.
Also, there is absolutely no contact tracing.
This is what you get when you have a governor and a Republican party and a Trump administration that doesn't believe in science. They should never have re-opened early or re-opened bars, gyms and restaurants at full or even 50% capacity.
What can we expect in the next 2-3 weeks?
Now we have had 4,000+ cases in Arizona for exactly 6 days. Its high was on June 30th at 4,683 cases. (Remember NJ's peak was just 4,305). Most other days it has been in the 3,000+ range
There is usually a lag between the cases peak and the deaths peak. Also, more testing is being done, so cases are being caught earlier and hospitals may be handling it a little better, learning from the experience of the doctors in NY.
The good news for Arizona is that unlike Florida and Texas, the cases are not growing rapidly and we may have already reached the peak in cases (here's hoping that it is the case). With the R0 values still around 1 and the cases hovering around 3,000 to 4,000 every day we are probably about 5-7 days away from a surge in deaths. We could see it play out just like in New Jersey where the deaths peak was a full month after the cases peak.
We have already seen a 300% increase in the high of 47 deaths on June 30th to 147 on July 18th. This probably will continue to break new records for the foreseeable future, based on what we saw in New Jersey
Where to go to look at the Arizona chart?
On my COVID data analytics site, at either of these URLs below, you can select just Arizona and the months of June / July to see the data relevant to Arizona right now. In the first you will see a column chart for cases and one for deaths. In the second you will see the data as a table
My COVID data analytics site also shows that there are only 5 counties in Arizona where there is growth in weekly cases from two weeks ago. Select Arizona from the state dropdown and then sort by the "2 Weeks % diff" column (descending). So, in that sense this is doing better than Florida (where 30+ counties have 100% growth).
Why does it make sense to compare New Jersey with Arizona?
Because their population is similar. New Jersey with 8.8 million population is the eleventh largest state by population while Arizona is the fourteenth largest with 7.3 million.
Differences between New Jersey and Arizona
New Jersey City is very densely populated (5th smallest state) and so the disease spread very easily.
Luckily, AZ is not so densely populated as it is the sixth largest state. However, Tucson and Phoenix (Maricopa county) are areas of worry. In fact the Trump rally in Phoenix already caused a surge in Maricopa county and it is now in a decreasing trend. Just like in Florida, the ageing population is a huge worrying factor for Arizona.
Above all else, the ICUs being at capacity is the most troubling factor. They had 4 months to prepare for this and they have blown their response.
So badly unprepared, which is why we are seeing headlines like these:
How Arizona became such a COVID-19 hot spot
Arizona out of ICU beds. Texas, Arizona requests refrigerated trucks.
I am not an epidemiologist or a virologist. I am a software developer and a data analyst. So, I am looking through the numbers and looking at factors like R0, Positive Rate, ICU hsopitalizations and whether social distancing is being observed and whether masks are mandated etc. In addition to that I am looking at what happened in places like NY, NJ, Italy, Spain, China etc. which were the first places to get hit, to come to these conclusions.
My goal is to warn people as to what may come and to practice social distancing and to wear masks at all times. Because wearing a mask never killed anybody and it could most certainly save hundreds of thousands of people.
Look at all those places which shut down and then once it was brought under control, people never left home without masks. Italy, Spain, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Denmark, Norway etc. They all flattened the curve and then are using common sense like wearing a mask.
The places that refuse to wear masks, sees growth like this since April 30th.
Texas: Up 1014%
Arizona: Up 1037%
Florida: Up 1953%
Now is not the time to be against science and be a ridiculous anti-masker and show the whole world how ignorant and dangerous you are! Wear a damn mask!
Relevant links to COVID Data Analytics site
Case and Death Patterns by State
Red States v/s Blue States
States, counties setting cases and deaths records each day
Cases and deaths records for each state
Details of Cases and deaths by state / county
School and College Reopenings
A national database that tracks coronavirus-related school closings, quarantines, cases and deaths.
NATIONAL SCHOOL COVID database! A dedicated educator's local project, initiated out of anticipation of the upcoming academic year, has grown into a national database that tracks coronavirus-related school closings, quarantines, cases and deaths. #COVID19 https://t.co/XHgOKSIOQR— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) August 22, 2020
Covid-19 Is Creating a Wave of Heart Disease -daily reminder that there is so much more to #COVID19 than death
New CDC guidance says COVID rates in children is steadily increasing. (not ideal for schools reopening)
Perhaps not the time to reopen schools? https://t.co/Mh0nYwXLms— Molly Jong-Fast🏡 (@MollyJongFast) August 16, 2020
LONG TERM BURDEN after COVID hospitalization — “Anybody who needed to be hospitalized or needed ICU support will suffer disability afterwards.”
This is why it is so dangerous to send kids off to school in the Republican states where Case Positivity ratio is 10-20%. Millions of Americans will now have a lifelong pre-existing condition and if the Republicans win the 2020 election through voter suppression, shutting down USPS and colluding with Russia and China and Ukraine, these Millions of Americans are looking at bankruptcy. Vote Blue, as your life depends on it!
With a population of 328 million in the United States, it may require 2.13 million deaths to reach a 65 percent threshold of herd immunity, assuming the virus has a 1% fatality rate.
Let’s not try out this strategy. What if the virus has a 2% fatality rate? 4.26 million deaths is acceptable?
“With a population of 328 million in the United States, it may require 2.13 million deaths to reach a 65 percent threshold of herd immunity, assuming the virus has a 1 percent fatality rate.”— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) August 31, 2020
Let’s not try out this strategy. https://t.co/r27ynkJghl
Temple University shuts down in-person classes as #COVID19 cases on campus increase.
Temple said in-person classes go online starting Monday and continue online through Friday, Sept. 11, with only classes deemed essential by college deans held in person
Temple University shuts down in-person classes as #COVID19 cases on campus increase.— Cleavon MD (@Cleavon_MD) August 31, 2020
Temple said in-person classes go online starting Monday and continue online through Friday, Sept. 11, with only classes deemed essential by college deans held in personhttps://t.co/HDyxgjP62v
Trump and the Republicans come up with a plan to kill 2.3 to 3 million Americans
They complained that 4 Benghazi deaths were too many. Now they are signing off on Putin paying Taliban to kill American Soldiers and the genocide of 2-3 million Americans.
Good thing that they are pro-life. Imagine if they were the pro-death party?
BREAKING NEWS: Senior White House Official Tells CNN That "Everybody" in America Will Get COVID-19; White House Statement Is Consistent With Trump's Reported Desire to Execute a "Herd Immunity" Pandemic Response; Experts Say Such a Plan Would Kill Millions pic.twitter.com/DFEJbbV5Qc— Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) August 28, 2020
Deceptive practices in Arizona
Top health officials in Arizona and Maricopa County won't release COVID-19 outbreaks in schools to the public.
Parents, guardians, faculty will be notified. BTW: ASU, universities are not required to report outbreaks to state, or Maricopa County.
Top health officials in Arizona and Maricopa County won't release COVID-19 outbreaks in schools to the public.— Nicole Grigg (@NicoleSGrigg) August 28, 2020
Parents, guardians, faculty will be notified.
BTW: ASU, universities are not required to report outbreaks to state, or Maricopa County. https://t.co/8S73x5t9g1
The U. of Arizona says it caught a dorm’s covid-19 outbreak before it started. Its secret weapon: Poop.
The U. of Arizona says it caught a dorm’s covid-19 outbreak before it started. Its secret weapon: Poop. https://t.co/r4HChxEGx6— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) August 28, 2020
Deceptive practices in ASU which will lead to more infections and deaths, not less
It's the same story again and again. Colleges have outbreaks and teachers & students are left in the dark. This story is from #Arizona State University.
- Professors NOT told students have COVID!
- Prevented from WARNING OTHERS, because it would cause "unnecessary panic"
It's the same story again and again. Colleges have outbreaks and teachers & students are left in the dark. This story is from #Arizona State University.— Cleavon MD (@Cleavon_MD) August 29, 2020
🔹Professors NOT told students have COVID!
🔹Prevented from WARNING OTHERS, because it would cause "unnecessary panic" https://t.co/CUy2I2Nw0G
452 @ASU students have tested positive for #COVID19. More than half of the students who tested positive live off-campus in the Valley.
About 205 students with COVID-19 are living on the Tempe campus and in isolation.
BREAKING: 452 students have tested positive for #COVID19, along with 28 employees, @ASU announced late Friday evening. 205 students are isolating at Tempe campus, and more than 50% of positive cases are off-campus. Link coming soon. @Cleavon_MD— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) August 29, 2020
452 @ASU students have tested positive for #COVID19. More than half of the students who tested positive live off-campus in the Valley. About 205 students with COVID-19 are living on the Tempe campus and in isolation. https://t.co/ceM1Kq7Nkb— Cleavon MD (@Cleavon_MD) August 29, 2020
ASU President tweets incorrect numbers https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1299581071571521544
More fraud in a Republican Governed state -- This time hiding & falsifying #COVID deaths
Hundreds of #COVID19 deaths unaccounted for in #Arizona’s Maricopa County; 71% increase in deaths last month.
In July 2019 there were 2,656 — a typical number for that month, but in July 2020 there were 4,540 deaths.
Hundreds of #COVID19 deaths unaccounted for in #Arizona’s Maricopa County; 71% increase in deaths last month.— Cleavon MD (@Cleavon_MD) August 27, 2020
In July 2019 there were 2,656 — a typical number for that month, but in July 2020 there were 4,540 deaths.
Now do your state!
ASU confirms 161 COVID-19 cases on and off-campus between students and staff
ASU confirms 161 cases https://t.co/q8P7UR6ud6— ASUcovidTracker (@as_ucovid) August 26, 2020
Arizona schools, childcare centers required to report COVID-19 outbreaks
ASU has some nerve, keeping its COVID-19 numbers secret
ASU is a public university that has made the controversial decision to open for in-person instruction, potentially endangering a community that is desperately trying to get control of this virus. And we have no right know what’s going on?
ASU is a public university that has made the controversial decision to open for in-person instruction, potentially endangering a community that is desperately trying to get control of this virus. And we have no right know what’s going on? https://t.co/ZV4NiRuHuo via @azcentral— Laurie Roberts (@LaurieRoberts) August 25, 2020
Tucson's largest school district fully closes another campus and partially shutters another due to COVID-19
This is just in the second week of Gov. Doug Ducey requiring schools to offer in-person services
In the second week of Gov. Doug Ducey requiring schools to offer in-person services, Tucson's largest school district fully closes another campus and partially shutters another due to COVID-19. https://t.co/V8HjSqMW3A— Arizona Daily Star (@TucsonStar) August 25, 2020
CDC updates school COVID-19 guidelines
'An Arizona teacher ...warned that in-person classes would turn schools into a "petri dish" after she & 2 other teachers in 1 school contracted COVID-19 during summer school & 1died.'
CDC updates school COVID-19 guidelines; https://t.co/CIEmjuWJHP via @upi 'An Arizona teacher ...warned that in-person classes would turn schools into a "petri dish" after she & 2 other teachers in 1 school contracted COVID-19 during summer school & 1died.'— Aly (@ALhighlights) August 23, 2020
Gov. Doug Ducey says he won't intercede or criticize school districts that opt to reopen for in-class instruction
Even though their communities don't meet the COVID-19 benchmarks set by his health director.
Another Republican Governor refusing to do his job and thereby endangering kids, teachers, staff and all their families.
Gov. Doug Ducey says he won't intercede or criticize school districts that opt to reopen for in-class instruction though their communities don't meet the COVID-19 benchmarks set by his health director. https://t.co/SEqgIKMuVe— Arizona Daily Star (@TucsonStar) August 21, 2020
Arizona teachers are being fined for refusing unsafe working conditions?
What happened to "right to work"(for less)? This is going to be a disaster.
Arizona teachers are being fined for refusing unsafe working conditions? What happened to "right to work"(for less)? This is going to be a disaster. @DrEricDing @official_hfaz #SchoolReopening https://t.co/dkFlXtRXlu— Suzanne Hug 🌵🧢 (@HugMesaAZ) August 17, 2020
Aug 15th: Now some schools have been open for more than a week in Arizona.
Arizona school district cancels plans to reopen schools after 100+ teachers refuse to return
An Arizona school district that had been planning to reopen Monday has been forced to change plans after teachers flat-out refused to return to the classroom over COVID-19 fears. https://t.co/0l6AoOO8Y9— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) August 15, 2020
Bold — Arizona public school district forced to abandon plans after more than 100 teachers and staff members called in sick
Praents / Teachers / Staff need to opt out of in-person training. Choice is simple, listen to the Sociopathic GOP governors and Trump and die or opt to stay home and live! This sickout example needs to be followed in every state / county which does not meet the CDC guidelines of 14 days of cases declining and test positivity rate of less than 5%. Even if those conditions are met, testing should be readily available for every school kid / teacher / staff with results returned the same day.
Anything else is the the Republican party sacrificing people to get Trump and the Republicans re-elected. Your life or your kids lives or your parents lives are not worth a vote for Trump or any Republican candidate.
Bold—Arizona public school district forced to abandon plans after more than 100 teachers and staff members called in sick.— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) August 16, 2020
Makes sense — AZ epidemic still way too hot right now. It’s even in the RED ZONE of our analysis by state. #COVID19 https://t.co/tf46q41zPt
A teacher sickout in Arizona has closed their unsafe schools.— Eric Blanc (@_ericblanc) August 15, 2020
Let’s hope their example spreads across the country.https://t.co/TGVPWjRlWO
40+ schools have already closed nationwide after reopening last week
Here Are the More Than 40 Schools That Have Already Closed for COVID | News Break https://t.co/qcOLPb1TFN— 💥😷Trevor Nelson😷💥 (@CTrevorNelson) August 11, 2020
At least 97,000 children in US have tested positive for COVID in the last two weeks of July.
Worrisome—At least 97,000 children in US have tested positive for the coronavirus the last two weeks of July alone.— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) August 10, 2020
At least 338,000 children have been infected since the pandemic began ➡️ meaning more than a quarter have been infected in just 2 weeks. https://t.co/MpstGBocFM
How widespread is COVID-19 in children? (9%) A look at the latest data as schools reopen
COVID-19 can spread in air if schools don't have proper AC, report says
AZ teacher fined $2K for resigning from Dysart school district over COVID-19 concerns
Again, more evil being perpetrated in Red States by Republican administrations
"The protocols you've set in place will not keep me from getting [COVID-19] and bringing it home to my family, so why do I have to pay you $2,000, when you haven't paid me anything?"— Martin Rogue (@Rogue_Martin) August 6, 2020
The man has a point and a right to protect himself and his family right?https://t.co/Eevhsqj0R8
ABC15 received reports Friday of at least four districts in Arizona with positive cases of COVID-19
FOUR DISTRICTS? 'ABC15 received reports Friday of at least four districts in Arizona with positive cases of COVID-19 -- all staff members working in schools,' - per @Steve_Irvin— Nicole Grigg (@NicoleSGrigg) August 8, 2020
So many concerns.
So many questions.
Parents do deserve to know.
Quick thread on protocols: pic.twitter.com/pIQNlYQwNY
Brain-dead AZ school district officials pray-the-virus-away for school reopening
School staff members from an Arizona school district say during their “Back to School Kick Off” they were subjected to eight Christian pastors and more than an hour of Bible quotes and prayers to protect them from COVID-19. https://t.co/mb6lhGzUqh— Gene Bryant (@GeneBryant2) August 9, 2020
Australia follows Israel's disasterous model; School reopening results in explosion of cases; 100s of schools now closing again
I live in Victoria in Australia, a state suffering a terrible COVID 2nd wave outbreak right now.— James Rooney (@Grungeholio) August 7, 2020
Schools opening were a key component in driving 2nd wave cases.
👇This👇 is what Wall St. servants like Schumer are condemning America to.
Dozens of teachers, students get COVID in 1st wk
Within 11 days of schools opening, dozens of students and teachers have gotten COVID-19: 'I truly wish we'd kept our children home' https://t.co/oRYAvcmVQF— Jon Cooper 🇺🇸 (@joncoopertweets) August 7, 2020
7 year old dead in GA (Kids are not immune)
A 7-year-old has died of Covid-19 in Georgia, the youngest victim of the virus in the state, according to data compiled by the state health department.— CNN (@CNN) August 7, 2020
The boy was from Chatham County on Georgia's coast, and had no underlying health conditions. https://t.co/TF0tySH6B7
Even Germany closes 2 schools
Schools that open in the fall will close by October
Some teachers are retiring rather than go back to school
With no end in sight to the coronavirus, some teachers are retiring rather than go back to school https://t.co/D1QBQk2EFI— TIME (@TIME) August 6, 2020
CDC abdicates responsibility; will let kids get sick
"One of the things we've missed this year has been a strong voice from the Centers for Disease Control … I think this message of just open the schools without a real plan to do it safely is potentially very dangerous," Dr. Paul Sax says.https://t.co/1GsKx22Ec1— MSNBC (@MSNBC) August 6, 2020
German schools test students twice a week
📍TESTED TWICE A WEEK—German school students get free #COVID19 saliva tests twice a week, with results emailed the very next day.— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) August 6, 2020
➡️ Oh, plus, this was back in May. Can we ask if we have truly done enough for our kids? https://t.co/027ciVpw61
Trump learns nothing from 160,000 dead and wants to reopen Schools
Nearly 160,000 Americans have died in the pandemic, yet Trump has learned nothing about the coronavirus. His latest Fox & Friends interview proved it. https://t.co/2LbAbUB5EL— Vox (@voxdotcom) August 5, 2020
Covid-19 may spread more easily in schools than thought, report warns.
Covid-19 may spread more easily in schools than thought, report warns https://t.co/aANx0S2UcS— Guardian news (@guardiannews) August 5, 2020
Trump administration sticks to plan to reopen schools (and infect millions?)
Trump administration sticks to schools plan as U.S. nears 5 million coronavirus cases https://t.co/avrK4upyQe— Post Politics (@postpolitics) August 4, 2020
When Covid Subsided, Israel Reopened Its Schools. It Didn’t Go Well.
The Israeli government, confident it had beaten the coronavirus, invited students back to school in May.— The New York Times (@nytimes) August 4, 2020
Within days, infections were reported at a Jerusalem high school. It became the largest outbreak in a single school in Israel, possibly the world. https://t.co/QYQKN3Vmu8
Trump criticizes Birx after she warns U.S. it is unsafe to reopen schools as coronavirus outbreaks are extraordinarily widespread
Live updates: Trump criticizes Birx after she warns U.S. coronavirus outbreaks are "extraordinarily widespread" https://t.co/7Z767wY8Ge— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) August 3, 2020
As the Coronavirus Comes to School, a Tough Choice: When to Close
Full story here by @smervosh and @ShawnHubler looking at when schools that open might have to shut down again. "As soon as you open classrooms, within two weeks, teachers and students will get sick," one expert told them. https://t.co/FhmNzx9rUh— Scott Dodd (@scottdodd) August 4, 2020
Ex FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb on MLB and Schools Reopening
"This is highly infections, and MLB didn't do what NBA did to put in place a really strict bubble," says @ScottGottliebMD. "It is a warning of what could potentially happen if we aren't very careful with the schools." pic.twitter.com/j1hKXQ1z7S— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) August 3, 2020
Issues faced by an Arizona superintendent on safely reopening schools
An Arizona superintendent on safely reopening schools:”We still haven’t received our order of Plexiglass barriers, so we’re cutting up shower curtains and trying to make do with that. It’s one obstacle after the next.” https://t.co/H4fEbASWin— LenaSun (@bylenasun) August 2, 2020
‘I’m sorry, but it’s a fantasy’. Jeff Gregorich, superintendent, on trying to reopen his schools safely
There’s a reason this is getting a lot of attention today. https://t.co/4l7FZITS0c— Dan Rather (@DanRather) August 2, 2020
Teachers are writing their wills
"Teachers are writing their wills."— CNN (@CNN) July 13, 2020
A Texas high school teacher describes the anxiety among teachers about having face-to-face instruction in the fall, noting that the state's current education plan is "ignoring all the facts about how the virus works." https://t.co/keK6J9NGWl pic.twitter.com/2qqzMXufc9