In an earlier blog post I had discussed the Corona virus wreaking havoc on the Southern Hemisphere (countries in South America, Africa and Australia). Most of the countries here are setting cases and deaths records very frequently in their winter (Jun-Aug).
Here I look at Japan, Israel and the European countries experiencing a second wave in the summer. This is very problematic when you consider what happened in the Fall of 1918 during the Spanish Flu.
1918 Spanish Flu Second Wave (Fall)
While the Spanish Flu lasted for two years, a significant number of deaths were packed into three especially cruel months in the fall of 1918.
Israel, Japan experiencing a second wave in their summer months
Israel and Japan had flattened the curve in Mar / April. Then Israel made the mistake of reopening their schools and Japan, its economy by allowing all businesses to open with very few restrictions. Now the peak of their second wave is so much higher than the peak of the first wave, that the first wave looks like a blip on its cases chart.
Countries in Europe experiencing a second wave in their summer months
At its peak in Mar / Apr in Europe when France, Germany, Spain, Italy and the UK had thousands of cases a day, Europe was seeing 20-24k cases a day. Welp! The last few days in Europe has seen at least 26k cases. Western European nations like Spain, France, Italy, Germany are now having the most cases in a day almost up there with the worst days from Mar / Apr. Spain and France now are having 4,000+ cases a day again. Italy at 1,000+ a day and Germany nearing 2,000 a day.
In addition countries like Romania, Kosovo, Ukraine are setting almost daily case records.
The charts below for Greece and Serbia clearly shows that the 2nd wave peak has exceeded that of the first wave. You can see the charts at my data analytics site on these two pages below:
The charts below for Belgium, Czech, Netherlands, Spain shows these countries clearly in the middle of the second wave
The charts for France and Germany show the beginning of the second wave. The cases weekly for both these countries is up more than 100% when compared to a few weeks ago.
Case growth in Europe over the last week
The following countries have at least 50% growth in the last week: Croatia (175%), Slovenia (102%), Austria (78%), France (77%), Hungary (76%), Greece (72%), Malta (65%), Denmark (54%)
Case growth in Europe over the last 2-weeks
The following countries have at least 100% growth in the last 2 weeks: Greece (241%), Denmark (190%), Finland (176%), Norway (158%), Netherlands (154%), France (140%), Ireland (128%), Hungary (119%), Croatia (103%)
Case growth in Europe over the last 4-weeks
The following countries have at least 250% growth in the last 4 weeks: Netherlands (669%), Norway (618%), Greece (581%), Finland (463%), Estonia (429%), Denmark (392%), France (352%), Spain (348%), Ireland (293%), Belgium (261%)
Why is this growth problematic?
In March / April when the virus ravaged UK, Spain, France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Belgium, at its peak, the daily number of cases was around 20-25k. The daily cases in Europe had dropped to about 10,000 daily about 5 to 6 weeks ago. Now it is averaging 23k cases daiy again with the virus surging again in Western Europe and the virus setting daily cases record in most of the Eastern European countries like Ukraine, Romania, Moldova etc.
This spike is in the middle of summer when Trump said the heat will make the virus disappear magically. The Spanish Flu second wave happened in the Fall. So, if all these countries and all of Asia is surging (Most of Asia never had a second wave as they never flattened the curve, so, it has a giant first wave) going into the fall, things could get really ugly. Especially if there are no vaccines yet and we get into flu season.
Lack of social distancing and parties (France) / vacationing (Croatian beaches have been a hot spot) like these don't help either.
At sunny Saint-Tropez, the party crowd brings champagne — and the coronavirus https://t.co/6sRZmirBqQ— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) August 9, 2020
On the Croatian island Pag, Czechs successfully celebrated a wild Corona party, they drank from the same pot, got positive and keep on seeing lives positively. The travel agency specializes in similar parties. Coronazi nations would get a heart attack. https://t.co/DWQaWC78dC— Luboš Motl (@lumidek) August 8, 2020